Predicting Automotive Industry

'Chaotic, disruptive, sometimes out of control'

The auto industry has been hard to predict recently. There are some major trends, such as electrification, which have been building steadily, but I don't think anyone fully understood the impact of COVID-19 or the computer chip shortage.

Regardless, the Society of Automotive Analysts' Automotive Outlook Conference each January attempts to look ahead to the coming year.

Among the predictions, as rounded up by our sister paper Automotive News: We should expect continued shortages in the number of cars produced, possibly until 2023; an interest rate hike is likely in the coming months; and the supply chain will continue to struggle to provide parts for both traditional vehicles and electric cars.

Above all, Sheryl Connelly, chief futurist for Ford Motor Co., says feeling a little bit out of control may be the new norm.

"Our theory is this: It's that consumers have gotten accustomed to this low-grade fever of anxiety. And I think that's really important for every business to understand in the marketplace today. That living in a world that feels chaotic, disrupted, sometimes out of control, is becoming the norm for a lot of consumers across all industries," she said.